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May 28, 2004
The problems with polling
According to a new Research Note by the Federal Parliamentary Library, opinion polls have become 'staples of contemporary political reporting'. Yet, often, too few details are published, which means people get the wrong impression of results. For example, 'The margin of error (or sampling error) is an oft-overlooked part of polling that can have significant effects on the utility of results, especially those that are within a few percentage points of one another.' Why is this so? And why do polls fail to predict election results accurately? For a range of reasons - see the full Note, Interpreting opinion polls: some essential details, for the lowdown. It's at www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rn/2003-04/04rn52.pdf. Posted by belinda at May 28, 2004 10:16 AMEmail this